Every presidential election cycle of this century has felt like the most important one yet, to the point that saying so has become a cliché. This time around, though, there are differences that matter more than usual, particularly for brands.
Immediately after Election Day, I will assess the implications of the results for brands here on Branding Strategy Insider and the character of the marketplace ahead. But even before we know the outcome, seven things stand out.
1. Divisions Have Hardened
This may be the most common observation about this election. Nearly everyone made their mind up early. Despite furious campaigning and record amounts of money, few voters have changed their minds. The polls have barely budged. Red counties have become redder; blue, bluer. The geography up for grabs is rarer territory than ever.
- There is no bandwagon fusion emerging over the closing days that brands should expect to see as a shared sensibility or aspiration.
2. Culture Is Front And Center
The hardest parts of the division in the electorate are cultural issues related to immigration, race, gender, family, faith, home, community and abortion. The economy and crime are important, as always, but what’s competing for power in this election are diametrically opposed visions of culture and values. Ironically, many of these cultural values are wedge issues within each side, yet an intense dislike for the other side is holding the competing coalitions together.
3. Mistrust Is Rife
Each side thinks the other is lying. And each side might be right. Misinformation to advance right-wing causes and candidates has been widely documented, but now it is characteristic of the left as well (as reported by The New York Times in early September). Already, a record number of lawsuits contesting electoral procedures have been filed. Not to mention criticism of the unusual candidate switch from Biden to Harris. Three-quarters of those interviewed in a New York Times/Siena College poll believe democracy is under threat.
4. The Mood Of America Is Distressed
As the election draws near, stress and worry are spiking. Both sides stand ready to contest every ballot. Many are expecting the worst about the election and about what the winner might do. Mental health has become a public health crisis. Consumer sentiment is stuck in a recessionary mindset (even as spending has stayed strong and robust). All this is happening under a macro overhang of volatility, disruption and uncertainty.
5. People Are Turning Toward Themselves
Our term for this in the Kantar MONITOR tracking of lifestyle trends is “selfward.” Not to abandon the world at-large or broader social priorities. Rather, to give more priority to one’s own needs and satisfactions. It means more interest in self-care, in mental wellbeing, in rewards and indulgence, and in experiences. Consumers want a break from the stress and volatility of the wider world, politics in particular.
- The call to action that brands have answered since the surge of populism following the financial crisis is giving way to a desire for relief, serenity and shelter.
6. Violence Has Slipped Its Fetters
Two assassination attempts targeted Trump. Crimes committed by or attributed to undocumented immigrants have been a campaign issue. So, too, shoplifting, carjackings and public drug use. A shadow of criminality hangs over the election, from Trump’s criminal conviction and other pending charges, which some have labeled “lawfare,” to Trump’s forewarnings about how he intends to deal with these charges if he takes office. All of which follows a period just after the pandemic that saw a spike in incivility, some of it murderous, as well as record levels of consumer rage over product and service problems.
7. Boomers Are On Their Last Legs
Perhaps the good news in this election is that it’s the last time we’ll have two Boomers, and maybe any at all, contending for the highest office in the land. Trump is a 1946 baby, the first year of the cohort. And Harris was born in 1964, the last year of the cohort. Many things have characterized the Boomer era of cultural, social and political dominance, but perhaps most of all is the “Star Wars” mentality that my co-author Ann Clurman and I described in our first book on Boomers, Rocking the Ages, as “a clash of moral principles — good versus evil.” The Dark Side versus The Force. No compromise is the hallmark. Which is how this election is being contested.
- Time to zero in on the generations emerging from the crucible of this transitional decade marking the end of Boomers. This election is not the future. It is an end, to be followed by a new beginning.
Contributed to Branding Strategy Insider By Walker Smith, Chief Knowledge Officer, Brand & Marketing at Kantar
Branding Strategy Insider is a service of The Blake Project: A strategic brand consultancy specializing in Brand Research, Brand Strategy, Brand Growth and Brand Education
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