The longer conflict in the Middle East drags on, the more likely it is to decrease crowds at Walt Disney World. Not only that, but there’s a very real possibility that the Iran war could disrupt your travel plans in Summer 2026 and beyond. We discuss the why of this, how to act now to avoid negative impacts, and why prices are already increasing, which might force WDW to respond by opening the spigot on deep discounts.
For starters, it’s worth pointing out that Summer is the “New” Low Crowds Season at Walt Disney World. That discusses last year’s summer slowdown, our theories as to why, as well as why it’s not really all that surprising and is a trend first observed in 2016-2018, then again the last two years. Most of what’s discussed there will apply equally to 2027, save for Starlight delays.
Suffice to say, even absent the indirect consequences of the war in Iran, crowds will be manageable in the coming months. There’s a reason why only two weeks appear on our list of the 10 Best and 10 Worst Weeks to Visit Walt Disney World in 2026 & 2027.
All of this has been corroborated by Walt Disney World leadership. During a panel we attended, they discussed the post-COVID shift in travel patterns. More parents are willing to pull their kids out of school throughout the academic year, or are willing to take shorter trips throughout year.
Winter has seen an increase in demand (a trend that also predates “revenge travel”), and Walt Disney World reportedly recorded its highest resort occupancy levels over a 10-week stretch that ended in March of last year. All signs we’ve seen thus far suggest a repeat of that in 2026, with a multi-month lull starting with shoulder season and running until around Columbus Day.
Along with that, Walt Disney World leadership revealed that their pre-visit surveys show that the belief among guests is that crowds will be highest in summer. Among actual Walt Disney World guests, post-visit surveys reveal that the perception of crowds in summer are the lowest. In other words, there’s a massive ‘expectations vs. reality’ chasm. The point is that summer can be an expectations-exceeding time to visit.
This year has its own selling points that theoretically could drive crowds higher, not lower. As covered in Rankings & Opening Dates for Walt Disney World’s 14 New Summer Announcements, this year’s summer slate punches above its weight, to the point that it could help offset decreased demand. Another effort to entice visitors is the deluge of Walt Disney World discounts for Summer 2026 that were just released.
However, all of this may not be enough to prevent a year-over-year decrease in crowds. In fact, that’s precisely what we’re anticipating due to the Iran war. As discussed below, that conflict in the Middle East is already hitting American consumers in the wallet, and airlines are adjusting accordingly. This will in turn further change consumer behavior, and is likely to reduce attendance at Walt Disney World as soon as this shoulder season, and potentially for the remainder of 2026. Here’s why…
From my perspective, the canary in the coalmine here is prices at the pump and in the air. History has shown on multiple occasions that sudden spikes in the cost of getting to Walt Disney World are the biggest factor in reduced crowds. The biggest and worst example of this came during the 1973 Oil Embargo, when attendance plummeted and Disney shelved multiple projects. More recently, there were milder impacts in late summer and fall 2022.
People vote with their wallets, and higher transportation costs are the one big thing that has fairly quick impact. To that point, U.S. gasoline pump prices have jumped more than 30% this month, moving toward $4 a gallon due to supply disruptions stemming from the war in the Middle East.
U.S. national average retail gasoline prices have climbed about 90 cents a gallon, or more than 30%, since the conflict in Iran began at the end of February. The average pump price on Friday was $3.91 a gallon, according to data from AAA. That’s the highest average price for a gallon of regular gas since October 13, 2022.
Analysts expect pump prices to go higher, not relent, as crude prices continue to surge. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures have jumped over 40%, from $67 a barrel to nearly $100 over the same period. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, is also over $100 per barrel.
Goldman Sachs wrote in an investor note late last week that higher prices could last through 2027. Analysts warned that the Brent benchmark could exceed its all-time high, set in 2008, of around $147 per barrel, if supply disruptions lengthened.
“It now looks like gasoline will hit $4/gal next week and could head toward $4.10/gal and beyond,” wrote GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan on Twitter. “The national average price of gasoline is 5 cents away from hitting $4/gal for the first time since 2022, a level seen for 157 days out of 6,300” that’s a stretch dating back to 2009.
De Haan continued: “At today’s average gas prices, Americans are spending ~2.9% of their paycheck on filling up. A decent change in consumer behavior happens at ~3-3.25% (roughly $4/gal), but really snarls demand at 4%. By 5%, Americans are busting out the bikes.”
Gas last broke the $4 per gallon barrier in August 2022. I would note that, at the time, we observed this in our Walt Disney World crowd reports. June ended up being the peak of the summer crowds, with the ‘revenge travel’ era going out with a whimper as gas prices climbed in the second half of summer.
It was a rather abrupt slowdown, and that was a time when pent-up demand was otherwise running hot. The typical ‘twin peaks’ or ‘last hurrah’ of summer did not happen; instead, it was a steady decline after mid-June.
At the risk of stating the obvious, the baseline is already far lower for Summer 2026. Walt Disney World has already been pulling “levers” to entice people to visit the parks, and not just pulling from the 2019 playbook for discounts, but offering some of the best deals since the Great Recession (e.g. “Buy 4, Get 2 Free”). It’s a totally different dynamic than back in 2022 when special offers were scarce.
Turning to airlines, United CEO Scott Kirby wrote in a memo to employees that the airline is preparing for oil to rise as high as $175 a barrel and remain above $100 until the end of 2027. Although United believes there’s a “good chance it won’t be that bad,” there isn’t much downside to preparing for that outcome.
United shared in the memo that, as a result of jet fuel prices more than doubling in the last three weeks, it would mean an extra $11 billion in annual expense just for jet fuel. And that’s if they stay at this level as opposed to increasing further. In United’s best year ever, the airline made less than $5 billion.
What was most fascinating to me is Kirby’s invoking of COVID. Early in the memo, he says that “post-COVID, we knew that industry stress events were inevitable. And while we couldn’t predict what they would be, my personal North Star for the last five years has been to position United so that we can avoid system-wide furloughs again.”
United was “better than any airline in the world during COVID at seeing over the horizon and making decisions earlier. That let us catapult out of the COVID crisis,” Kirby continued. “If we’re right that oil stays higher for longer, we’ll be in a better position to be first on many decisions that others will follow.”
Many CEOs and executives from the largest domestic airlines spoke at the JPMorgan Industrials Conference last week, and shared with investors that they’ve already raised fares to cover higher fuel costs.
From what was shared at that event, many have already raised fares in response to the Iran war, with Kirby saying that airfare was “running up between 15% and 20% in the last week…so pricing has been going up as one would expect.”
Oil prices have risen to over $100 a barrel, but jet fuel costs have climbed considerably higher. Brent crude is up 45% over the last month, but the Argus US Jet Fuel Index has risen 72% in that time.
In less than a week, jet fuel went from $3.78 per gallon to $4.56. And jump happened after airline executives spoke at the JPMorgan conference, meaning that all of the sentiment shared here comes after the second-sharpest spike in March (prices had been up and down in the week prior). That’s as contrasted with prices in the $2 range late last year and into early 2026.
Unsurprisingly, the spike is attributable to the Iran war and from resulting disruptions to oil shipments near the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical shipping routes. This narrow waterway between Iran and Oman has been effectively closed for 19 days, choking off 20% of the world’s oil supply. Some experts and economists fear that if this isn’t reopened soon, it risks tipping the United States into a recession.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is directly impacting airfare because jet fuel is typically the second-largest expense for airlines, after labor. “I’d much rather make the mistake of leaving a couple of months’ worth of demand on the table because we cut more, and then you can get it back, as opposed to making the mistake of oil prices staying higher and longer, and you’re flying flights that lose cash,” Kirby added at the conference.
CEO Robert Isom said American Airlines has spent an additional $400 million on fuel this month alone. He shared that there’s already been an impact to profitability, but that American is doing the “right things” to react to rising input costs going forward. If oil prices stay higher for longer, Isom indicated that American is “certainly going to be nimble in terms of capacity, to make sure that supply and demand stay in balance.”
Meaning that American will take similar action beyond raising airfare, by cutting flights to ensure that demand remains high and American isn’t running unprofitable flights. Isom said he has “great confidence” that American will be profitable this year.
Other airline executives from Delta and Southwest, which together with United and Delta are the four largest US airlines, shared similar sentiment. Delta CCO Joe Esposito mentioned fuel surcharges that airlines build into long-haul international tickets and award flights using miles. He also indicated that within the last few weeks, base fares for domestic flights have gone up.
CEO Ed Bastian also shared that Delta has already seen a decline in sales to Europeans, because “when you’ve got a war in your backyard, people tend to stay home.” Bastian also indicated that Delta is well-positioned to emerge stronger, as its status as a premium brand puts it in a “position of strength” to raise airfare prices.
Every major airline executive shared similar sentiment at the JPMorgan conference. That airfare prices are already up, and more is likely to come.
Southwest said its recent transformation to court more upmarket travelers and charge for more add-ons would be key to offsetting rising costs. “I am incredibly glad to have that extra revenue source coming online and being optimized,” CEO Bob Jordan said.
Southwest also warned of this potential problem in its most recent annual report: “Passengers often purchase tickets well in advance of their travel, and [Southwest] may not be able to increase fares, impose fuel surcharges, increase revenues, or decrease other operating costs sufficiently to offset rapid or prolonged fuel price increases.”
It’s not just Southwest that has this exposure. All U.S. carriers face this particular problem because most do not hedge fuel costs, unlike some European and Asian airlines that use hedging to cushion price shocks. Instead, they have been relying on fare increases and capacity discipline to recover part of the added expense. This also means that they’re likely to get out ahead of anticipated ongoing spikes by preemptively raising ticket prices for travel dates later in the year.
Soaring fuel costs are piling additional pressure on low‑cost carriers, compounding strains on business models already challenged by rising labor expenses. In fact, both Delta and United pointed to ultra-low-cost carriers like Spirit and Frontier, as being squeezed by the recent surge in fuel prices. These airlines have been struggling to survive, so prolonged conflict in Iran could pose an existential risk. That, in turn, is precisely what would help Delta and United emerge stronger.
Delta’s CEO referred to this as “another period of dislocation and disruption” that makes the airline industry “tighter and smaller and more durable,” which will yield a better return in the longer term” for Delta. “Not what we wish for, but I think that’s going to be.” I dunno, kinda sounds to me like that is what he wishes for.
Even amid war in the Middle East, growing concern about flight prices, eroding consumer confidence, and a murky economic outlook, airlines across the board also indicated that travel demand remains sky-high…for now.
Circling back to that United memo, the airline also revealed this: “for now at least, demand remains the strongest we’ve ever seen. The 10 biggest booked revenue weeks in our history have been the last 10 weeks. But it may be a challenge to continue passing through much of the increased fuel price if oil stays higher for longer.”
A strong demand environment has already allowed airlines to push through two fare increases of about $10 each way, and could support a further 5% to 7% rise, according to Melius Research. But bringing this full circle, it would track that the last 10 weeks have been busy for the airlines based on similar shifts in travel to what Walt Disney World has seen.
The operative part of that sentence from the United memo is “for now at least.” We’ve reported on robust demand, and how consumer behavior often doesn’t match sentiment. Which is to say that even as Americans have expressed trepidations, they words haven’t matched their actions.
Usually this works in reverse, though, with Americans spending freely on travel even amid declining consumer confidence, increased economic uncertainty, and fears of a looming recession. All of those variables have been at play on and off for the last 5 years, and none of them have had a meaningful impact on Walt Disney World.
While there’s a lot of fear-mongering about the health of the American consumer, the biggest thing that actually has a well-documented history of changing consumer behavior is the cost of oil. If the nationwide price at the pump for the summer is over $4 or $5 per gallon, it’ll have an adverse impact on Walt Disney World. Ditto flights being up 20% or more.
In this case, it’s also worth pointing out the pullback in international travel to the United States as an exacerbating factor. Walt Disney World has reported facing “headwinds” from foreign travelers.
That has apparently been such an insurmountable challenge for Disney (likely because many of those boycotting the US are unresponsive to price incentives) that the company has already pivoted marketing efforts from foreign markets to domestic ones.
Another thing we’ve seen is Americans “trading down” on destinations. This is happening right now, as price-sensitive visitors are opting for the beach as opposed to theme parks. (See Florida Reports Record 143 Million Visitors & Orlando Airport Hits 58 Million, as Disney World Drops.)
If gas costs continue to rise, people might continue to take summer vacations, but more could stay closer to home or opt for less expensive activities at their destinations. All of this means that Walt Disney World has less room to pivot if demand decreases.
An anticipated drop in demand is underscored by the airlines’ actual actions. United is being proactive and anticipating a decrease in demand by “tactically pruning” its “temporarily unprofitable” flights. The carrier plans to cut about 5% of all flights and 3% of its off-peak domestic flights over the second and third quarters of 2026.
Kirby said that red-eyes and flights on low-traffic days of the week (Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Saturdays) would be the first to go, for at least the next two quarters. United also reassured employees that nothing changes about the company’s longer-term plans or total capacity for 2027 and beyond, “but there’s no point in burning cash in the near term on flying that just can’t absorb these fuel costs.”
This is likely a harbinger of what’s to come, meaning it’s unlikely that United will be the only airline to cut flights. Part of the reason that United and Delta emerged stronger post-COVID was acting early to mitigate economic damage. The lessons learned from that are already evident from the memo, and we’d expect Southwest and American to respond similarly.
If you’re looking for actionable advice, mine would be booking airfare ASAP. If you’ve been watching prices rise steadily over the last few weeks and are discouraged because they’ve gone up and instead of down, you might be reticent to pay more than before.
That is normally my point of view, and I wait for the inevitable drop before paying the higher ticket prices. It usually happens, and my patience is rewarded.
That is absolutely not my perspective right now. As soon as the conflict in Iran started, we locked in as much airfare as we could for summer. We have a couple of additional trips coming in August and beyond that are not yet accounted for, and I plan on booking those ASAP.
From my perspective, the risk of waiting outweighs the potential reward. The conflict being prolonged and resulting in future increases strikes me as more likely than a swift resolution and decreases.
Even though airfare has already jumped by 15-20%, that doesn’t fully account for the rise in jet fuel. Meaning that airlines are going to continue to gradually raise prices to account for higher input costs–not do it all overnight.
What I would recommend doing is hedging your bets by booking flights with flexible cancellation or change policies. That offers the best of both worlds: locking in today’s prices while keeping the option to adjust your plans later if cheaper fares materialize. Deals are always possible, especially if a meaningful number of travelers cancel their plans, so set a Google Flights price alert or Airfarewatchdog deal notification.
Ultimately, it’s difficult to predict the actual impact on Walt Disney World crowds because that requires foresight into how the Iran war will unfold. Maybe there’s an off-ramp, it’s resolved quickly, and all of this will have been a temporary blip that results in a brief window of lost bookings that are more than offset by future discounts. In which case, there’s no meaningful impact on Walt Disney World crowds.
On the other hand, if the conflict is prolonged and jet fuel and gasoline prices remain at their current levels or increase further, there will be lower crowds at Walt Disney World in Summer 2026 and potentially beyond. In that scenario, the question becomes one of how deep the drop gets; and also, whether WDW can move quickly to offset via special offers.
That also depends on just how high oil prices climb. Travelers tend to book airfare months in advance, so the impact via most out of state tourists won’t be felt until the summer season. However, this doesn’t account for Southerners and others driving to Disney, which is a not insignificant number. If gas prices don’t relent in the next couple of weeks, there could be a meaningful decrease in crowds during the shoulder season.
Last time prices at the pump spiked, the drop in crowds was almost immediate. While we do not anticipate many families altering their Easter or Spring Break plans as a result of higher gas prices, the second half of April 2026 and beyond will be interesting to watch. Our baseline expectation at this point is lower crowd levels this summer (year over year), but not for the parks to be “empty” or “dead” or “ghost towns” or whatever.
Part of this is Walt Disney World finally not being caught flat-footed with summer being a slower season, and acting accordingly with a surprisingly strong slate of summer programming and discounts. We shall see, though–we’ll keep you posted about transportation price increases, potential offsetting discounts by Walt Disney World, and the impact all of this has (or doesn’t!) on crowds. Stay tuned!
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
Your Thoughts
Do you agree or disagree with our assessment as to the potential impact of the Iran war on summer crowds at Walt Disney World? Think gas and airfare prices will remain elevated into the summer and potentially 2027? Or, do you disagree entirely, and think this will be over quickly or won’t have any impact on travel? Any questions? Hearing your feedback about your experiences is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts or questions below in the comments!
