The busiest week of Winter 2026 at Walt Disney World is going to be even worse than normal, due to the double-whammy of two holidays colliding this year. Even in a normal year, high February crowds surprise guests, expecting dates before Spring Break to be slow. This covers dates to avoid, why it’ll be so busy, contributing & mitigating factors, and more.
Before we even get going, the bad news is that anyone expecting low attendance before mid-March is in for a rude awakening. This is precisely what prompted us to write Winter (Still) Is Not Off-Season at Walt Disney World. That was nothing new, and the trend continued last year and is already playing out again over the first month-plus of 2026.
With the exception of anomalies during the COVID era, winter crowds have grown since ~2017. Winter is no longer the off-season at Walt Disney World and hasn’t been for a while. There are a number of reasons for this, but the end result has been a shift away from summer and towards the beginning of the year. Walt Disney World has confirmed this trend, and last year reported that their strongest 10-week stretch from the winter through spring.
This is not to say that winter is busy across-the-board at Walt Disney World. There have already been slower days in early 2026. In the span of two weeks after New Year’s Eve, wait times were more than cut in half. The peak day of the holiday season (December 29th) saw average wait times of 60 minutes, and only one week later (January 6th) that average was down to 32 minutes.
The first 5 days of January 2026 were incredibly busy. That timeframe has been getting busier and busier due to Osceola and Orange County schools being out of session and a growing number of locals. It’s also still technically the holiday season, so locals who were blocked out in the two weeks prior return to enjoy one last bit of Christmas.
The weekdays that followed dropped dramatically, and the last two weeks have had 29 minute averages before rebounding around MLK Day Weekend, which was about on par with the lead-up to Christmas. Wait times fell again over the next few weeks to levels busier than summer, but still firmly in ‘average’ territory (minus a sharp spike on February 2nd for some odd reason). It’s busier than many longtime fans remember, and definitely not the off-season ghost towns that some guests still expect, but it’s not downright awful.
That will change soon. We want to bring your attention to an upcoming week that will be really busy–with an outside chance at being in the top 5 worst weeks of the entire year, and almost certainly in the top 10. It will almost certainly be worse than the same week last year, too…
2026 Predicted Peak Winter Crowds at Disney World
That ‘worst week’ of winter at Walt Disney World is approximately February 13-22, 2026.
This is almost always the worst week in the two months prior to spring break season starting, and it is often busier than the early spring breaks in March when Central Florida school districts are on recess. It is not, however, typically worse than Easter…although there’s an outside chance of that happening in 2026!
This is nothing new, as that timeframe is when many school districts offer a long weekend or full week off, for what’s widely known as Mid-Winter Break (or “Ski Week” in some areas of the West Coast). Several major districts in the Northeast and upper Midwest also offer this entire week off. Plenty of others have a long weekend break.
As you’re likely aware, this predicted timeframe encompasses the Presidents’ Day long weekend. That’s the big holiday that anchors many Mid-Winter Breaks and Ski Weeks. This year, it also includes Valentine’s Day on Saturday, February 14, 2026 and Lunar New Year on Tuesday, February 17, 2026. Those are not normally red flags for crowds, but they could be contributing factors this year. Definitely not the biggest ones, though.
Last Year’s Actual Peak Winter Crowds
Last year, we predicted that the worst week (or window, since it’s slightly longer than a week) of winter would be February 14-23, 2025. In reviewing the wait times data, the worst dates were actually February 14-22, 2025. That stretch averaged 8/10 crowd levels and 41 minute wait times. (February 23rd, which was in our predicted range, ended up at 34 minutes and 5/10 crowds.)
By contrast, February 13th was a 2/10 crowd level with 29 minute averages and February 24th was a 1/10 crowd level with 25 minute averages. Dates before and after those ‘worst week’ dates were similar.
Usually, the biggest red flag dates to avoid in this stretch, like so many holiday weeks, are Monday through Wednesday. However, the weekend beforehand is typically very busy (unlike a lot of holiday weeks), as are the dates that follow. There’s no single set of red flag dates that consistently surpass the rest of the window–the entire stretch is a red flag.
Back in 2024, heavy crowds started on February 15 and continued until February 26. Peak crowd levels were February 16-17 and February 19-21, all of which had 9/10 or 10/10 crowd levels. For those keeping score at home, our predictions performed similarly in 2024, just as they did in 2023.
This is not to pat ourselves on the back–even though this timeframe catches people by surprise who don’t have it off, it is consistently and predictably busy at Walt Disney World. You should be more concerned if we got it wrong than us calling it correctly.
For winter 2026, we’re expecting this to be even more pronounced. Which is to say that there will probably be higher highs February 13-22, 2026, but there’s also the potential for lower lows outside that timeframe. Here’s the why of that prediction…
Double Whammy: Mardi Gras Crowds
The difference-maker for this year is that Mardi Gras is February 17, 2026.
This is not always the case. To the contrary, the last time the two holidays collided was 2023. That resulted in two consecutive weeks with 9/10 crowd levels and average waits of 45 and then 47 minutes. Daily numbers during peak dates were even worse, with February 17-23 being especially bad.
The busiest single day was February 21st, which had 10/10 crowds and a 61 minute average wait time. That was the Tuesday of Mardi Gras. The Saturday through Monday of the Presidents’ Day weekend weren’t much better, with every day during that stretch having 56+ minute waits and 9/10 or 10/10 crowds.
Being a native Midwesterner, my knowledge of Mardi Gras used to be minimal. Obviously, I knew it was a holiday, but it had never crossed my mind as one that had an impact on Walt Disney World crowds. Intuitively, I figured Mardi Gras was a draw to New Orleans.
Then we moved to Florida and started seeing a lot of LSU and Saints shirts in the parks during a very busy week. That led me to do some research about school breaks, which confirmed suspicions. As it turns out, many major school districts in Louisiana have the week around Mardi Gras off, as do a handful of other school districts in coastal counties in Mississippi and Alabama.
Since then, we’ve observed this trend continue to play out on an annual basis, with wait times also increasing alongside the Saints and LSU gear (no such love for the Pelicans). As counter-intuitive as all of this might sound, it makes sense. As opposed to sticking around home for the influx of tourists descending upon Louisiana, many opt to avoid their local crowds or just vacation to Florida during a convenient time of year.
Basically, Mardi Gras is a holiday at Walt Disney World for the state of Louisiana much like Jersey Week is for New Jersey, just in mid-February instead of early to mid-November. It’s the exact same idea, and really underscores just how much a single state descending upon the parks en masse can have an outsized impact on crowd levels.
In a normal year, Mardi Gras moves the needle on wait times to a measurable degree. It’s not bad bad, but it’s noticeable. When Mardi Gras and Presidents’ Day occur during the same week, watch out.
When the two holidays coincide, this week can be one of the worst 5 of the entire year. Mardi Gras is an accelerant to already busy days, and will almost certainly make 2026 crowds during this timeframe worse than last year.
Contributing Factor: ESPN WWoS Events
One winter wildcard is the ESPN Wide World of Sports Calendar. There are a bunch of cheer and dance competitions dotting the calendar from late January through early March, and these can have an impact on crowds–especially feels like ones. They’re usually not enough to cause heavy crowds on their own, but these events can exacerbate dates that are already busy.
That’s exactly the scenario when it comes to the ESPN WWoS events held around February 13-22, 2026. There are three major youth events during the aforementioned timeline:
- 2026 USA Competitions Presidential Classic: February 13-16, 2026
- Disney Presidents Day Soccer Tournament: February 14-16, 2026
- 2026 Youth Flag Football World Championships: February 19-22, 2026
The first two of these major youth sporting events would be reason to predict higher crowds on the front end. However, these were both also held last year and had a negligible impact in the lead-up.
The Youth Flag Football World Championships event is the bigger wildcard, as that occurred one week later last year. There was a bump in crowds around those dates, but that’s not necessarily due to the event.
As a general matter, we’ve found that youth sporting events now have a bigger impact on hotel occupancy and availability than they do park attendance. Our theory for this is that the rising cost of these packages makes visiting the parks prohibitively expensive for many participants; many also likely arrive later and leave earlier for the same reason.
Youth sporting events used to have a major impact on across-the-board average wait times at Walt Disney World, but that hasn’t been the case in the last few years. Whatever impact they have is much more likely to be localized or anecdotal; you might be among the unlucky stuck behind these groups in line and have the horror stories to memorialize it (we do!) or you may not even notice they’re there.
Mitigating Factor: runDisney Princess Half Marathon
The runDisney Princess Half Marathon Weekend runs February 25 to March 1, 2026. This is one week later than the race’s normal slot, which is the weekend after Presidents’ Day.
This runDisney event is effectively switching spots with the Youth Flag Football World Championships for 2026. At least in theory, assuming equal attendees, this should net out to unchanged crowd levels for all of these dates in 2026. I’m not sure that we can assume equal numbers, or an equal number of participants who are motivated park-goers.
Either way, these races have less of an impact on wait times than they used to, as evidenced by the 2026 Walt Disney World Marathon barely being a blip on the radar. Obviously, the Princess Half won’t have any impact on February 13-22, 2026. We’re nevertheless mentioning it here because we’ve already heard from guests who are worried about later in the month or early March. It’s also pretty much a non-factor then, and not appreciably worse than the flag football event vacating that same slot.
Contributing Factor: Discounts & Pricing
When it comes to crowds throughout winter, it’s worth mentioning the impact of pricing and discounts. Winter is typically the Cheapest Time of Year to Visit Walt Disney World, with rack rates that are lower on average than even August and September.
There are also a number of room discounts, some of which (like the $99 room deal) are surprisingly strong. However, occupancy is always very high this time of year, so that changing by a percentage point or two (at most) shouldn’t move the needle on crowds all that much. Especially when the majority of guests come from off-site.
Speaking of which, the bigger factor on crowds is the 2026 Florida Resident Ticket Deal for Walt Disney World. This deal doesn’t have blockout dates but does require reservations, which act as a theoretical limit on usage–but not so much in actuality. That ticket deal will also have an impact–especially during the final week of the 2026 EPCOT Festival of the Arts, which is popular with locals. The good news is that it probably won’t move the needle much on a year-over-year basis, as this deal is substantially the same as last year.
Silver Linings of Mid-February
If you’re currently freaking out because you picked February 13-22, 2026 (or dates within that window) to visit Walt Disney World: don’t.
Sure, it’ll be busy. But it’s also an excellent time of year in the park with comfortable weather. Certainly better than what you’ll have at home if you’re from the Northeast or Midwest. It’s also a qualitatively better time of year than mid-August through September.
Frankly, if I had to choose between off-season dates in those months or a busier visit in winter, I’m picking the latter every single time. That’s probably a big reason why winter has worsened, whereas the summer and early fall have gotten less busy.
On top of that, following a good itinerary and utilizing smart strategy is just as important (if not moreso) than choosing the “right” dates. Even choosing dates that should be good can be undermined by surprising crowds, disruptive weather, etc.
It’s entirely possible to beat high wait times by utilizing Lightning Lanes, Early Entry, Extended Evening Hours, rope drop, etc. There are great ways to accomplish a lot–even on busy days–without buying Lightning Lanes. But if you do want to use LLMP or LLSP, consult our Guide to Lightning Lanes at Walt Disney World for everything you need to know.
By arriving early or staying late, you can beat the worst of the midday crowds. The only thing you really cannot completely beat is “feels like” crowds, especially in World Showcase at EPCOT and for Happily Ever After in Magic Kingdom. But even then, there are ways to minimize the worst of the congestion–be sure to also check out our Walt Disney World Itineraries for plans of attack.
Ultimately, we’ve been warning for over a year that February 13-22, 2026 would be bad at Walt Disney World in our Best & Worst Weeks to Visit Walt Disney World in 2026 & 2027 (see that list for optimal times to visit during this winter or next if you have flexibility). Although this understandably catches vacation planners by surprise, this is not a bold prediction–it’s one backed by at least a decade of precedent.
If you’re not visiting during that timeframe but for some odd reason read all of this anyway, I’ll leave you with a silver lining: Mardi Gras coinciding with Presidents’ Day has an obvious flip-side, which is that it’s not occurring a different week. By consolidating crowds that are normally spread out into a single week, other dates in late February and early March 2026 should be better than last year. And, spoiler alert, t’s a similar story with Spring Break. Easter moving forward by 15 days in 2026 means shoulder season should arrive sooner!
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Have you visited Walt Disney World during this worst week of winter in the past? What did you think of the crowds? What’s your expectation for February 13-22, 2026? If you’ve visited in the past when Presidents’ Day and Mardi Gras coincided, did you notice colossal crowds? Do you agree or disagree with our predictions? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
