The ongoing memory chip shortage is about to lead to a drastic drop in smartphone shipments this year. According to the latest forecast from TrendForce, the market will see a 10% drop in global smartphone shipments, which would result in an estimated 1.135 billion units shipped for the calendar year.
There is, however, an even worse turn of events, which could see the drop go as low as 15%, which TrendForce describes as the “Bear-case scenario”. Under this scenario, global smartphone shipments are estimated to reach 1.061 billion units for the year. While 2025 wasn’t the strongest of years for smartphone shipments, the market did end on a positive note with 2% growth for the year, thanks to an estimated 1.24–1.26 billion unit shipments.
Whatever happens, the average selling prices for smartphones in 2026 will inevitably go up. According to an example provided by TrendForce, memory components historically accounted for 10-15% of an average smartphone’s bill of materials (BOM), but that figure is now estimated to have surged to 30-40%. This will inevitably lead to production decline for some makers.
But the effects of rising memory prices will vary from brand to brand as some makers will be better suited to absorb the costs. Samsung’s established vertical integration and role as a key memory supplier will certainly play in its favor. Apple’s customer base has historically exhibited better tolerance towards price increases, which will likely play in Cupertino’s favor.
The same cannot be said for the majority of Chinese OEMs, whose customers are generally more price-conscious, especially for brands like Xiaomi, which rely on entry-level devices and are therefore more vulnerable to cost volatility.
