One of the busiest weeks of 2025 will soon arrive at Walt Disney World, to the surprise of many guests who expect winter to be off-season due to colder weather in Florida and schools being in session. This covers dates to avoid, why it’ll be so busy, and what to do to beat the long lines and crowds if you’re already planning a visit during this timeframe.
Before we even get going, the bad news is that anyone expecting low attendance levels from mid-January through mid-March will be sorely disappointed. This is precisely what prompted us to write Winter (Still) Is Not Off-Season at Walt Disney World last year. After almost a full year of declining wait times (versus the same months in the prior year), January through March 2024 saw wait times increase.
That’s nothing new. With the exception of anomalies during the COVID era, winter crowds have grown since ~2017. Suffice to say, winter is no longer the off-season at Walt Disney World and hasn’t been for a while. There are a number of reasons for that, but it’s the new normal for this time of year. With that said, if your frame of reference on crowds is the winters of the last ~2 years instead of a decade ago, you might actually be pleasantly surprised…
There have been some slow days thus far in January 2025. In the span of two weeks after New Year’s Eve, wait times were more than cut in half. The peak week of the holiday season saw average wait times of 50 minutes (once again the busiest week of the entire year), and the following week dropped to 33 minutes. Weekly averages have been in that ballpark since.
Keep in mind that these are weekly numbers, taking into account busier and less-busy days. The peak day of the holiday season had a 65 minute average, whereas the low point of January 2025 thus far has had a 24 minute average. And all of these averages encompass all of Walt Disney World, meaning a bunch of perpetual no-wait rides and much more popular headliners.
The first week of January 2025 was incredibly busy. That timeframe has been getting busier and busier due to Osceola and Orange County schools being out of session and a growing number of locals. It’s also still technically the holiday season, so locals who were blocked out in the two weeks prior return to enjoy one last bit of Christmas.
Wait times since have been all over the place. The WDW Marathon Weekend didn’t really move the needle, which is becoming increasingly typical of runDisney races. On the other hand, there was a spike for MLK Day Weekend, which is also unsurprising. And wait times are once again heating up heading into the end of January 2025, with 8/10 crowds over the weekend.
With that said, this isn’t a typical backward-looking crowd report. Rather, we want to bring your attention to an upcoming week that will be really busy–with an outside chance at being in the top 5 worst weeks of the entire year, and almost certainly in the top 10. Absent a big surprise, it will be the most crowded window of the first quarter of 2025.
That ‘worst week’ timeframe to avoid is approximately February 14-23, 2025.
However, not all dates within that window will be equally crowded. Moreover, high crowds could arrive slightly earlier and leave later…or contract a tad. This is nothing new, as that timeframe is when many school districts offer a long weekend or full week off, for what’s widely known as Mid-Winter Break (or “Ski Week” in some areas of the West Coast). Several major districts in the Northeast and upper Midwest also offer this entire week off. Plenty of others have a long weekend break.
As a general matter, the heaviest crowds are likely to be February 17-19, 2025. That’s Presidents’ Day through the Wednesday following. Bigger wildcards are the long weekend itself, which this year includes Valentine’s Day on Friday, February 14, 2025. That’s not normally a red flag for crowds, but being part of a holiday weekend could make it one.
For reference, last year heavy crowds started on February 15 and continued until February 26.
The days before that were still moderately busy, whereas after had low crowd levels. Peak crowd levels were February 16-17 and February 19-21, all of which had 9/10 or 10/10 crowd levels.
If adjusted for 2025 days of the weeks, that would mean February 13-24, 2025 would be the dates to avoid. And it’s possible that’ll be the case on the backend, but probably not the frontend of the holiday.
The reason crowds stay elevated into the weekend following Presidents’ Day is the Princess Half Marathon Weekend, which runs February 20-24, 2025. When it comes to runDisney events, most runners will show up early rather than staying late.
These races have less of an impact on wait times than they used to, as evidenced by the 2025 Walt Disney World Marathon barely being a blip on the radar. Crowd levels were moderate in the lead-up to the main event, then 1/10 on that Sunday and continuing to be low the following week. So we’re not inclined to include February 24, 2025 as part of the dates to avoid. Even February 23 might be stretching it.
This is doubly true given the ESPN Wide World of Sports Calendar. There are a bunch of cheer and dance competitions dotting the calendar from late January through early March, and these can have an impact on crowds–especially feels like ones. But they’re usually not enough to cause heavy crowds on their own. However, the sporting events can make already busy timeframes even worse.
That’s exactly the scenario around Presidents’ Day. There are two major youth events during the aforementioned timeline–the 2025 USA Competitions Presidential Classic and Disney Presidents Day Soccer Tournament–but they’re February 14-17 and February 15-17, respectively.
If anything, those major youth sporting events would be reason to predict higher crowds on the front end. Maybe that will occur to some extent, but when it comes to this long weekend, more school districts are likely to have time off in the days that follow.
The good news, if you’re looking for a silver lining, is that Mardi Gras isn’t until March 4, 2025.
In several recent years, the two have coincided (or close to it), resulting in an influx of visitors from Louisiana and other areas of the South. With there being an over two week gap between the two holidays, there won’t be any spillover from one to the other.
When the two holidays coincide, the combined holiday week is frequently one of the worst 5 of the entire year. When they don’t, it’s usually “only” top 10. Mardi Gras alone does make for elevated crowds, but not nearly on par with Presidents’ Day–it’s more an accelerant to already busy days.
When it comes to crowds throughout winter, it’s worth mentioning the impact of pricing and discounts.
Winter is typically the Cheapest Time of Year to Visit Walt Disney World, with rack rates that are lower on average than even August and September. For this reason, we often field concerns from fans this time of year who are planning trips and notice that hotel inventory is extremely limited (see Why Are Walt Disney World Resorts Sold Out?).
Disney finally wised up to this, and offered low percentage savings for many winter travel dates in 2025. Even so, there are a ton of dates with limited hotel availability before Spring Break, and fewer during those peak weeks. There are several reasons for that, but it largely comes down to pricing. A similar dynamic occurs during non-peak dates in November and December versus peak ones. The latter still ended up being considerably busier in the parks.
As we’ve discussed before, sold out hotels are not conclusive of crowds. There’s only so much hotel inventory on-site at Walt Disney World and most park visitors come from off-site (not only that, but DVC resorts are designed to run near full capacity, so those being booked up has zero bearing on crowds).
Whether cheaper prices on WDW resorts induce more Florida vacations or simply shift the stays between off-site and on-site hotels is debatable. It probably does move the needle a bit, but on-site hotel inventory does not have as significant of an effect on crowds as many fans believe. Occupancy at non-Disney resorts and visitation patterns of locals is what’s more consequential.
The bigger factor is the 2025 Florida Resident Ticket Deal for Walt Disney World. This deal doesn’t have blockout dates but does require reservations, which act as a theoretical limit on usage–but not so much in actuality. Suffice to say, that ticket deal will also have an impact–especially during the final week of the 2025 EPCOT Festival of the Arts, which is popular with locals.
If you’re currently freaking out because you picked February 14 to February 23, 2025 (or dates within that window) to visit Walt Disney World: don’t.
Sure, these dates will be busy. But it’s also an excellent time of year in the park with comfortable weather–certainly better than what you’ll have at home if you’re from the Northeast or Midwest. It’s also a qualitatively better time of year than mid-August through September.
Frankly, if I had to choose between off-season dates in those months or a busier visit in winter, I’m picking the latter every single time. That’s probably a big reason why winter has worsened, whereas the summer and early fall have gotten less busy.
On top of that, following a good itinerary and utilizing smart strategy is just as important (if not moreso) than choosing the “right” dates. Even choosing dates that should be good can be undermined by surprising crowds, disruptive weather, etc.
It’s entirely possible to beat high wait times by utilizing Lightning Lanes, Early Entry, Extended Evening Hours, rope drop, etc. We cover the best & worst approach for each park in Best Time-Saving Strategies for Walt Disney World. If you’re only going to read one planning post, make it that. There are great ways to accomplish a lot–even on busy days–without buying Lightning Lanes.
By arriving early or staying late, you can beat the worst of the midday crowds. The only thing you really cannot completely beat is “feels like” crowds, especially in World Showcase at EPCOT and for Happily Ever After in Magic Kingdom. But even then, there are ways to minimize the worst of the congestion–be sure to also check out our Walt Disney World Itineraries for plans of attack.
Speaking of which, we have a ~4,500 word Guide to Lightning Lanes at Walt Disney World for those who want to thoroughly master paid FastPass. Weeks like this, it’s definitely a good option for Magic Kingdom, Hollywood Studios, and EPCOT.
Ultimately, we’ve been warning for over a year that February 14 to 23, 2025 will be bad at Walt Disney World in our Best & Worst Weeks to Visit Walt Disney World in 2025 & 2026 (see that list for optimal times to visit during this winter or next if you have flexibility). Although this understandably catches vacation planners by surprise, this is not a bold prediction–it’s one backed by at least a decade of precedent.
The open question is just how bad it’ll end up being. Valentine’s Day being the Friday beforehand, along with two youth sporting events that weekend and a runDisney event the following weekend could exacerbate crowds. Same goes with discounted tickets and no meaningful limits on reservations. On the other hand, all of this isn’t entirely unprecedented.
Not only that, but the bigger factor is the timing of Mardi Gras two weeks later, lack of major cheer & dance events either of those weekends, and runDisney races having less of an impact on wait times. Additionally, year-over-year wait times generally have not been as bad in the last ~6 months due to the DAS overhaul and switch from Genie+ to Lightning Lane Multi-Pass. On top of all that, the closer Epic Universe’s opening date gets, the more likely families are to postpone visits to Central Florida until that. This isn’t to say that Mid-Winter Break/Presidents’ Day/Ski Week/etc. won’t be busy–it absolutely will–but maybe it won’t be quite as bad as last year or the year before.
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Have you visited Walt Disney World during Mid-Winter Break/Presidents’ Day/Ski Week/Sporting Events/etc. in the past? What did you think of the crowds? Any parks, times of day, or days of the week noticeably worse than the others? What’s your expectation for February 14-23, 2025? If you’ve visited in the weeks before/after in previous years, did you notice a big difference in crowd levels once the ‘peak week’ got underway? Do you agree or disagree with our predictions? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
