It was a quiet summer at Walt Disney World, and the off-season was so slow that September was the least busy month since 2021. There have been some spikes to above-average territory, and EPCOT has been surprisingly busy, but otherwise, Walt Disney World has enjoyed an extended slow stretch for almost the last 6 months.
That all ends now, or very soon. Fall break is one of the busiest times of the year at Walt Disney World, and is essentially the kick-off of the popular 3 month stretch culminating in Christmas and New Year’s Eve. Federal holidays and school recesses cause crowd levels to spike, which catches many visitors by surprise.
In fact, October 2025 will have windows with some of the year’s highest wait times in Magic Kingdom, EPCOT, Animal Kingdom, and Hollywood Studios. In all likelihood, the coming weeks will include the busiest dates since Easter, and the first time since April 19, 2025 that Walt Disney World had truly high crowd levels.
Technically, fall break “season” has already started. Some school districts do multiple ‘student holidays’ or ‘professional development days’ for teachers in late September and early October. Other colleges, universities, and K-12 school systems take longer breaks deeper into the month of October.
It’s not just fall breaks that contribute to congestion, either; as covered in our 2025-2026 Walt Disney World Crowd Calendars, there are a variety of reasons why the next few months contain some of the busiest dates of the entire year. With that said, it’s definitely more challenging to make credible predictions for the next month-plus.
Normally, the weekend of Columbus Day/Indigenous Peoples’ Day and the following weekend are the two worst of the fall break season. That will likely be true again in October 2025, but there’s less certainty about which weekend will be busier, the weekdays in between, or the longer tail of fall break.
The main reason for this is that last year’s wait times data and crowd levels are of zero value whatsoever. This is true for October as a whole, but especially fall break. That’s because last year’s fall break occurred in the aftermath of Hurricanes Helene and Milton.
The storms were so impactful that the company directly addressed them on earnings calls, warning that Walt Disney World operating income would be adversely impacted by approximately $130 million due to storms. Hurricane Milton caused the parks to close and had a long tail of lower crowds due to cancellations in the days and weeks afterwards.
I don’t know how many vacation cancellations $130 million amounts to, but it’s definitely not a negligible number. Just in looking at data for October 2024 vs. 2023, the wait times and crowd levels are way lower last year. We expect Walt Disney World to recover from that in October 2025.
What’s unclear is the degree to which that year-over-year recovery will occur. This October will definitely be busier than last. But will crowds be on par with 2023? There are reasons to believe the answer is no, with convention business appearing to slow slightly.
There are also a variety of reasons for travel trepidations, including lasting scars from last year’s hurricanes. (The cumulative impact of increased hurricane closures in the last ~7 years is travelers adjusting dates to avoid storm season.) Still, Walt Disney World is going to finish the year on a high note, with advance bookings suggesting that October through December, along with early 2026, will be busy.
With that preface out of the way, let’s dive right into the fall break predictions. We’ve flagged October 10-18, 2025 as being one of the the 10 worst ‘weeks’ of the year. See our list of the 10 Best and 10 Worst Weeks to Visit Walt Disney World in 2025 to 2027.
In the commentary to that list, we noted that fall break was “only” the #9 worst week of the year in 2023 and there was a decent chance it would fall of the list entirely in 2025. We noted that some potential visitors might be spooked away by storm season or still-hot weather.
Nevertheless, these dates usher in the end of the off-season, and start of an over 3-month stretch of elevated crowds–minus a few major lulls. Fall break is notable from that perspective alone. It’s a turning point for Walt Disney World crowds and one that catches people by surprise. That’s precisely why we’re offering this heads up–because this is a major and abrupt change from the off-season.
Whenever we cover the worsening crowds in October, there are always some fans who treat this as a “contradiction” to our previous slew of summer and off-season crowd reports. (“I thought you said crowds were low? Make up your mind!” is an actual comment we’ve received, along with more of that nature.)
Yes, crowds were low. But they’re not static. What would even be the point in covering crowd levels if they were always the same?! There are lows and highs throughout any year, and now is the time in 2025 when we start seeing more highs.
The good news is that we do have kernels of information to make informed predictions. For starters, Walt Disney World has extended park hours in October 2025 with far greater frequency than the last several months.
These extensions signal that the internal attendance forecast is elevated for at least part of the month. This practice of extending hours happens whenever crowd levels are expected to be above-average to heavy.
On dates that are forecast to be busiest, Magic Kingdom is closing at 11 pm on nights when it’s not hosting Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party and is opening at 8 am on most days–party or not. Animal Kingdom is opening at 8 am and staying open until 7 pm on many nights. Unfortunately, both EPCOT and Disney’s Hollywood Studios are retaining their 9 am to 9 pm hours for now.
Based on park hours extensions, Walt Disney World is projecting October 11-19, 2025 and October 24-25, 2025 to be the peak of fall break season in the parks.
Despite most Americans not having it off work, Columbus Day is a federal holiday so plenty of people do have it off. Additionally, many schools use Columbus Day as the basis for their fall breaks, offering an extended holiday between their first and second marking periods.
That’s the case for both Osceola and Orange Counties, which are the districts in Central Florida that call Walt Disney World home. Both Orange and Osceola County list October 10 as the end of the marking period and October 13, 2025 off.
Even if no other district in the entire United States had fall breaks then, that long weekend would be busy at Walt Disney World due to those two local school systems. This is another thing that catches some longtime Walt Disney World fans by surprise, as local school districts did not have such an outsized impact on park attendance a decade or so ago.
Central Florida has seen a population explosion in the last several years, with these two counties in particular seeing an influx of remote workers and upper middle class families who visit Walt Disney World in strong numbers. This is evident throughout the year, especially when those districts have their spring break or in early January when AP blockouts end (speaking of which, Annual Pass blockouts are another big crowd factor, especially for the two lowest tiers.)
It’s not just Central Florida school districts that have fall breaks. Here are dates for other large school districts in Florida:
- Broward County Public Schools: October 13, 2025
- Palm Beach County Public Schools: October 17, 2025
- Duval County Public Schools: October 13-14, 2025
Here are other major school districts and their fall break dates that could impact crowd levels at Walt Disney World:
- Gwinnett County Public Schools: October 9-13, 2025
- Chicago Public Schools: October 13, 2025
- Fairfax County Public Schools: October 13, 2025
- Indianapolis Public Schools: October 13-17, 2025
- Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools: October 13-17, 2025
One interesting thing I did notice while researching dates is that an increasing number have opted to forgo dedicated fall breaks in October in favor of longer breaks for Thanksgiving (and in some cases, Christmas). This is a trend that had started a few years ago, but seems like it has really accelerated in the last year.
Based on what I’m seeing, it appears to be an especially popular trend among districts in the South, including Florida. In fact, I couldn’t find nearly as many major districts in Florida and Georgia that have dedicated fall breaks this year as in 2022-2023. That seems significant, and could mean fewer 8/10 and above crowd level days over the next couple weeks.
We don’t have the time or resources for a comprehensive list, so this is for illustrative purposes only and is not intended to be fully representative of all fall breaks. Notably, there’s very little from the Northeast and Midwest. This is not to say that New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Indiana, etc. don’t have a huge impact on crowds.
However, it’s our view that the farther from Walt Disney World, the less impact any school district’s fall break has on crowd levels. That’s because, unlike Thanksgiving, Christmas, or New Year’s Eve, this is not a week or longer break–it’s typically just a long weekend. Disney diehards aside, most families aren’t flying down to Walt Disney World for a long weekend.
Additionally, our focus here is on K-12 school districts, but universities have fall breaks that can cause slight spikes to attendance. Colleges usually have less of an impact on Walt Disney World crowds due to age demographics, but they don’t have zero impact. Notable examples include Florida State University, University of Florida, University of Central Florida–you get the idea.
Since last year’s data is unusable, let’s take a look at October 2023 crowd levels (courtesy of thrill-data.com). Average wait times peaked on October 16, jumping to 50 minutes for a 9/10 crowd level. Notably, that was the Monday after Columbus Day, which fell earlier. Just two weeks prior was still the off-season.
Crowd levels gradually fell throughout the week, and by October 22, there was once again another lull. Despite October 16 being the busiest single day, the peak full week was actually October 9-15, 2023 (crowd level 8/10 and average of 42 minutes). By contrast, October 16-22 had a crowd level of 6/10 for an average of 38 minutes. Both of these weeks were considerably slower than 2022, but that was the height of pent-up demand.
In both 2022 and 2023, crowd levels dropped by the last full week of October and remained low-to-moderate until the spike for Jersey Week and Veterans Day. Contrary to popular belief, there is no spike for Halloween. There is a bit of a bump in the few days leading up to the runDisney Wine & Dine Half Marathon (races are October 23-26, 2025).
If annual patterns continue to play out, Fall Break 2025 will be slower than 2022-2023. That’s a fairly safe prediction given overarching crowd trends and the apparent shift away from dedicated fall breaks since then. However, there’s every reason to expect a fairly dramatic year-over-year increase as compared to October 2024; again, that’s due to Hurricanes Helene and Milton causing ~$130 million worth of cancellations.
It’s highly unlikely that this year’s fall break peak crowd levels surpass this Easter. April 12-19, 2025 was the last truly busy week of this year, and there’s nothing in the past data (or anything else) suggesting fall break will rise to that peak week.
Nevertheless, one of the next two weeks probably will be the busiest week since Spring Break. Most weeks since Easter have underperformed in 2025, with the months of May through September all been down year-over-year. However, Walt Disney World is starting to turn a corner and even as of late last month, crowd levels were on the rise.
For fall break to be the busiest week since spring break, all it would need to do is have an average wait time of 35 minutes or higher. That’s only a 5/10 crowd level. Only a couple of weeks since April have averaged 34-minute crowds; most have struggled just to hit the 30-minute mark.
Even the current week, before most schools are on fall break, stands at 32 minutes. That’s up from several weeks having lows of 23-26 minutes during the last two months of the off-season, so crowds are already trending in the right direction.
Next, let’s talk wildcards. As discussed in Best & Worst Days to Do All Parks at Walt Disney World in 2025, day of week trends really matter this time of year. Choose the “correct” parks on the best days of the week, and you’re likely to have a pleasant experience even in moderate to above average crowds.
Choose the “wrong” parks on the worst days of the week, and you might be surprised by how high wait times are even during weeks with 1/10 or 2/10 crowd levels. Remember, these are averages across all of Walt Disney World–there is a ton of day-to-day inconsistency at the park level.
One element of those recommendations that doesn’t apply to fall break is weekends being slower. Whereas we’ve seen other holidays see lulls on Saturday and Sunday, those are weeklong windows. By contrast, fall break is a long weekend for most school districts, so it does the opposite–spiking crowds on the weekends.
Further reinforcing this is that there’s an unprecedented new Florida Resident Ticket Deal for Fall & Holidays 2025 that runs for the entirety of fall break and all the way up to Christmas week.
This ticket deal is not blocked out on weekends. It’s also notable that it is blocked out for Magic Kingdom, meaning locals who buy that ticket can only use it at EPCOT, DHS, and DAK. There was no such deal last year, so this should give some degree of boost to crowds in the final few months of the year.
That new deal just launched, so we don’t have many data points as to its impact (or lack thereof) on crowds. Our tentative recommendation is to avoid weekends throughout the deal . For the last few years, Saturday and Sundays have been the least-busy days of the week at Walt Disney World, which is a trend partially due to blockouts (it’s also due to AP blockouts, higher hotel rates on weekends, and more).
This Floridian ticket doesn’t have weekend blockouts, so the opposite is actually true here. Most locals work weekdays, making weekends the most logical time for them to visit. If you can swing a weekday visit, you’ll come out ahead most non-holiday weeks simply by virtue of that. It wouldn’t surprise us if the ticket deal ends up being unpopular due to the Magic Kingdom exclusion, in which case the weekend advice won’t apply.
However, the 1-2 punch of the ticket deal plus fall break being a long weekend holiday (for the most part) does make for an easy recommendation to avoid Fridays through Sundays for the next few weeks in October 2025.
Although not the topic of this post, we would also extend this to Epic Universe. This is more or less what played out there over Labor Day weekend (but not Labor Day itself), and we’d anticipate a repeat of that over Columbus Day weekend (but not the Monday) as well as the two weekends that follow.
Now let’s talk beating the crowds. First, remember how we discussed extended park hours at the top of the post? Well, those added hours are incredibly advantageous–especially the earlier opening times since most travelers don’t want to do the early wake-up call on vacation.
Choosing the optimal days to do each par, especially DHS and Magic Kingdom–and then taking advantage of Early Entry at both parks–is huge. Do not underestimate Early Entry, or visiting those parks on days that are likely to be less crowded. It’s a similar story with Disney’s Hollywood Studios or Animal Kingdom in the evenings.
By simply arriving early or staying late at every park, you can beat the worst of the midday crowds. Of course, that’s “simple” in theory but more difficult in practice, especially if you have small children. That’s a big reason why wait times are lower first thing in the morning and later in the evenings.
Fall break will be busier than the last ~6 months, but it won’t be insanely busy like some peak holiday dates. It’s still possible to beat bad crowds by utilizing Lightning Lane Multi-Pass, Early Entry, Extended Evening Hours, rope drop, etc. We cover the best & worst approach for each park in Best Time-Saving Strategies for Walt Disney World.
There are great ways to beat the crowds–even on busy days–without buying Lightning Lane Multi-Pass (LLMP) or Single Pass (LLSP). We don’t buy line-skipping services most of the time, and find we’re able to do just fine so long as we’re up early or out late.
Speaking of which, we have a comprehensive Guide to Lightning Lanes at Walt Disney World for those who want to thoroughly master the latest generation of paid FastPass. Weeks like this, it’s definitely a good option for Disney’s Hollywood Studios (#1), Magic Kingdom (#2), and EPCOT (#3). We seldom recommend LLMP at Animal Kingdom, and that remains true during fall break, too.
Overall, that’s about what you can expect to experience during Fall Break 2025 at Walt Disney World. Expect elevated ‘feels like’ crowds starting pretty much right now, and continuing through late October. Based on historical precedent, this week won’t be terrible and neither will closer to Halloween–the worst crowds will be October 10-18, 2025.
Crowds won’t plummet on October 19th, but they will gradually fall through the tail end of the month and early November, until Jersey Week and Veterans Day cause the next big spike. Beyond that, daily specific predictions are challenging.
It appears that a growing number of school districts are ditching fall breaks, and the stated reason many are giving (including multiple big ones in the South) are for extended Thanksgiving breaks. It’ll be interesting to see if that means worse crowds during that week as compared to last year. About the only thing we are certain of is that October 2025 should be busier than last year, unless there’s another hurricane that causes over $100 million in cancellations!
In the end, we wouldn’t necessarily avoid fall break ‘season’ if you have a school-aged child and have no better options outside of the big holiday breaks in the final quarter of the year. There’s a very good chance all of those (Veterans Day, Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year’s) will be just as bad or worse than fall break. Just be aware that October 2025 crowd levels will be higher than they were from April 19th through September.
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Have you visited Walt Disney World during fall break in the past? What did you think of the crowds? Are you visiting this year? Did you cancel your fall break trip last year due to Hurricane Milton? If you’re in a southern school district, have you lost fall break for added days around Thanksgiving? Do you agree or disagree with our predictions? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
