During an earnings call, CEO Bob Iger gave a surprisingly candid response when asked about new Disney theme parks in different countries, saying “there’s an inevitability to us building parks in other countries, but it doesn’t necessarily mean that we’re going to build something anytime very soon.” (Updated May 5, 2025.)
Iger also remarked that Disney believes there’s “opportunity to expand in China, and there may also be opportunities in other parts of the world.” He also indicated that Disney regularly engages in conversations with representatives from different markets who would love to put Disneyland in their market.
Given attendance trends, the chatter about further development should come as no surprise. It seems like nearly every quarter, we hear reports of attendance and other growth. Particularly since 2011, the U.S. Disney Parks have seen pretty consistent annual attendance growth.
May 5, 2025 Update: The above quotes came during the Q2 earnings call with investors and Wall Street Analysts on May 8, 2018. That’s a long time ago! However, there’s a new rumor that nearly 7 years to the day later, Disney will make a bombshell announcement about a new theme park prior to its Q2 earnings call for 2025.
Screamscape is reporting a rumor that Disney will be making a major announcement on Wednesday, May 7, 2025, involving some kind of project in the United Arab Emirates. Look for this to get released first thing Wednesday morning on the East Coast, which also happens to be the day that Disney will release their Q2 2025 earning results that same morning.
Abu Dhabi is home to several high profile projects, such as Ferrari World, Warner Bros World, SeaWorld Abu Dhabi, and more. The rumor suggests it might be time for a Disney theme park or attraction in the United Arab Emirates capital.
For those who are newer to the scene, Screamscape is what I’d describe as a ‘legacy’ theme parks rumor mill. Over the years, they’ve had some big swings resulting in major misses–but also huge hits. They’ve first reported rumors no one else saw coming, but also shared some utter nonsense. My guess would be that they have (or had) good sources but also awful ones, and do not assess credibility or veracity before reporting to filter out the garbage.
I am inclined to believe this falls into the latter bucket. But not to such a degree that I’m just dismissing it out of hand (hence this article update). It’s possible that the UAE has made Disney an offer the company cannot refuse; they have no shortage of cash and bolstering the country’s prestige and profile is a paramount priority.
What better way to accomplish that than with the Disney brand? There’s a flip side of that, though–would even a sweetheart deal be enough to get Disney to accept the potential brand damage it might entail? I have no doubt that the UAE has made overtures to Disney in the past. What changed? Why accept now? Why would Disney CEO Bob Iger rebuff offers in the past, but not now? Has the public perception already improved to a sufficient degree that Disney feels comfortable accepting?
The other reason I find this dubious is simply the reporting itself. This suggests that “sources” (plural) within Disney have shared this. This isn’t a new piece of entertainment or ride reimagining–a new theme park announcement probably wouldn’t have multiple sources. The limited people in the know would not be unlikely to talk about this, as it’s the type of news that could move markets and cost them highly lucrative jobs.
If this is true, it probably wouldn’t even be discussed outside of the Eisner building in Burbank. Even Imagineering would likely learn about this the same day as everyone else. It’s below the pay grade of almost everyone outside the c-suite. (I’ll eat my words here if this gets announced with detailed aerial concept art.) Even the original Avatar at Animal Kingdom announcement blindsided almost everyone.
Realistically, a rumor like this probably wouldn’t come from sources within Disney. It would be more likely to come from someone in the UAE SWFs or PR department for Yas Island, and even then, it might not be indicative of where negotiations stand. It could be a matter of leaking something to strengthen their position or for other ulterior motives. I haven’t the slightest clue–I just know this is not the type of thing that is normally subject to rumors or leaks from Disney.
The other reason I’m skeptical of this is because the company has seemingly settled on its strategy for introducing Disney Parks & Resorts (sorry, Disney Experiences) to new markets: cruise ships.
This is the very obvious pivot, to the point that I strongly suspect if Bob Iger were asked the same question again on Wednesday, 7 years later, he’d explain why the cruise ship model is more nimble and dynamic, and less risky than building physical infrastructure on foreign land. But that’s probably another topic for another post.
The bottom line is that I’m skeptical this rumor is credible and will come to fruition. However, there’s still a shadow of a doubt given the aforementioned reputation angle. If this rumor were about a new park in Spain or Australia, I would’ve dismissed it without a second thought as completely implausible, and you wouldn’t be reading about it.
The difference with the UAE is that there’s a very realistic scenario involving one of the country’s sovereign wealth funds. They could have backed up a money truck to Disney and CEO Bob Iger might view this as one last big legacy project. Stranger things have happened. Stay tuned–we should know whether this is legitimate or not before the week is over!
With that said, here’s our original commentary from 7 years ago on this very same topic…
Where Disney will build its next park is a question that comes up with surprising regularity. In part, that’s probably because it’s fun to daydream, and many Disney fans want to imagine a theme park in their backyard.
If you listen to Texans, it’s practically a criminal offense that Disney has yet to build in the center of the universe Texas. (No offense to the Texas-centrics reading this–perhaps Disney is just worried that such a concentration of awesomeness would be lethal to us non-Texans?)
The other reason for this ongoing conversation is because it seems like every other week there’s another article that makes the rounds about bogus plans for a new Disney park about to be built in [insert random country here]. No, for real this time. While it’s easy to dismiss those stories as dumb clickbait, my suspicion is that many of these articles are fueled by politicians with various ulterior motives. I won’t digress into that, though.
Whenever friends have sent these to me, my response has been the same: I doubt I’ll see another castle park open in my lifetime. While this new quote by Bob Iger might cast doubt on the likelihood of my ‘prediction’, I think there’s still only a 50/50 chance I’ll see the opening of another castle park. Not because I think ‘Rio DisneySky’ is next or because I plan on dying in an epic bear-wrasslin’ battle in 4 years, but because I just don’t see any options for resorts in new locations in the foreseeable future.
If I were to prognosticate the future development of Disney Parks around the globe, I think the safest predictions are new gates in Shanghai, Hong Kong, Anaheim, and Paris (in that order). Even then, those are likely not in the cards as near or mid-term developments, except perhaps second gates in China and Hong Kong.
As always, here’s Why a 5th Theme Park Will NOT Be Built at Disney World in the Next Decade. Realistically, I’d extend that to in the next two decades. The only reason the title does not end with “in My Lifetime” is because I plan on living an obscenely long time–we’re talking mid triple digits–and it’s impossible to foresee what could happen once we hit Walt Disney World’s 100th Anniversary.
In the more immediate future, expanding Walt Disney World, Disneyland, Hong Kong Disneyland, Shanghai Disneyland, and Disneyland Paris are all planned. These projects have been announced, in some cases construction has begun, and they will consume a significant amount of Parks & Resort’s capex for the foreseeable future.
Timelines for the announced projects listed above already stretch into the next decade. It’s difficult to see Parks & Resorts capex being diverted to developing new sites with any of those safer bets still on the table. Once those expansion projects plus yet-unannounced second or third gates are completed, we’re already looking at 2040, at the earliest.
Setting that aside, and assuming arguendo that Disney has a more immediate desire to build in a new locale, there are basic prerequisites. First, the location needs to have a high concentration of middle class residents within close proximity; spitballing, I’d say there need to be over 50 million income-qualified potential guests within 4 hours by public transportation.
Second, the location needs to be somewhere that would not cannibalize a significant amount of business from Disney’s existing parks. This is the one that eliminates literally any other location in the United States. (Sorry, Texas.) It also eliminates anywhere in Europe.
Third, the location needs to be somewhere that has demonstrated long-term political stability. A place that has economic or political volatility would not be a good suitor. This might eliminate Brazil (and a number of other locations, most of which were probably already eliminated, anyway), which otherwise would be an obvious candidate.
Fourth, the choice needs to be relatively uncontroversial for a family-friendly, all-American brand like Disney. I think this might rule out places like United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, or Qatar. These countries otherwise have governments with the resources to lure Disney (or license the name) if they so desired. China seems about as bold as Disney would get in that regard, but as the saying goes: money talks.
Speaking of which, assuming what I’ve listed are Disney’s actual parameters, that basically just leaves expansion at new sites in Asia. Singapore would’ve been an interesting option at one point, albeit unlikely. The Disney Adventure cruise ship that’s coming to Singapore would seem to be the answer there, anyway, and more of a “right-sized” and dynamic option.
Seoul is another interesting option, and there are a number of thriving industries that could make this location sustainable. However, let’s not forget the instability a mere 50 miles from the city. There’s always the possibility the North Korea ‘situation’ does get resolved in the near future, but to the extent that Disney is comfortable building there? That seems highly unlikely anytime in the mid-term future. Not only that, but the demographics are dire.
Beijing is pretty far from Shanghai, and also has a sufficient population buffer. That city now has a Universal theme park, which isn’t necessarily outcome-determinative either way. Orlando has both Disney and Universal outposts, and it’s much smaller than Beijing.
Guangzhou is also a huge city and a safe distance from Shanghai, but it might be too close to Hong Kong. In actuality, there are probably a few other potential candidates in China, but it seems likely that Disney would take a wait and see approach in the near to mid-term with further development in China.
(Update for 2025: I’d bet against new sites in China given the deteriorating political climate and relationship between the U.S. and Chinese governments. I’m skeptical Disney would make the same decision to build Shanghai Disneyland, in the first place, if doing things all over again right now.)
Finally, it needs to be a country with favorable demographics. This is somewhat of an outgrowth of the above points, except not just with regard to income. Any country chosen for a new park would almost certainly have to hit the sweet spot of a growing middle class and a younger population.
This should be important to Disney as a hedge, especially as all of its current parks are located in countries with aging populations. This is most evident in Japan (albeit at parks Disney does not own), but the United States and every other country where Disney Parks currently does business has the same issue with irreversibly declining fertility rates.
For its next park, Disney will likely choosing a country that offers the intersection of the above, with current stability and favorable long-term prospects for a younger population and growing middle class.
From this perspective, India is probably the best option, but I think that’s another one where a wait and see approach might be appropriate to see how middle class income continues to develop. Still, development here within the next 30 years is not outside the realm of possibilities. Other countries that seemingly check at least some of the right boxes are Vietnam, Indonesia, and Brazil.
I think that’s about it. Realistically, I think it would also take the local government offering Disney a sweetheart deal or taking a stake in the business (or both), which complicates this calculus even further. As with the Olympics, being home to a Disney theme park is a legitimizing factor, and I could see other emerging world cities that want to step out onto the world stage also vying for a new Disney park. The question, ultimately, is whether Disney would be willing to take the gamble.
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Your Thoughts
Where do you think Disney will build its next park? Do you think we’ll see a new castle park in our lifetimes? Where is your dream location for a Disney theme park–either close to home or your favorite travel destination? Any other speculation, commentary, or questions? Hearing from you is half the fun, so please share your take below!
