It’s time for our first Walt Disney World crowd report of 2026, recapping the highs & lows of the couple months with a focus on the latest trends as of late January that will likely spill into early February. This wait times report shares data for the last month-plus, plus our theories as to what’s happening with attendance & lines–and why wait times are getting worse at painting a complete picture of crowds.
Let’s start with a quick recap of crowds from the holiday season through early January. We don’t need to fixate on this too much, as it was mostly what you’d expect. Jersey Week through Veterans Day saw a slight spike to moderate territory, with crowds peaking on Monday, November 10th. Wait times plummeted the following week, with November 16-22 having lows rivaling the August and September off-season.
Thanksgiving week was the busiest of November with crowds arriving the Sunday before, peaking on Monday, and continuing until Thursday. By Friday, the sharp downtrend had already begun. But even at its height, Thanksgiving week was not truly busy. Crowd levels, at least as measured by wait times, ended up being moderate. As always, congestion is a different story. But this is precisely why (spoiler alert) Thanksgiving ranks #1 on our list of the Least-Bad Weeks to Visit Walt Disney World for Families on School Schedules.
Most of December ended up having low to moderate crowd levels. During the first 3 weeks of December, average wait times across the entirety of Walt Disney World were 29 minutes. That’s not averaging all three weeks; it was the same 29 minute average in each of those weeks (some days were better and worse, obviously).
Those are exceptionally good crowd levels, and this is now the second consecutive year that lower crowds have crept into that third week, not just the first two. Although there were some daily and park-by-park spikes prior to then, there were not consistent and sustained moderate or higher crowd levels until Saturday, December 20th.
What might be a surprise is that the days and weekend around Christmas actually were not that bad. Crowds were high, but as a whole, the average wait time was 40 minutes and the crowd level was only 7/10, with peak dates being December 22nd and 23rd. That’s below each of the last two Christmases, and the first time we’ve seen a crowd level below 9/10 for that particular week during normal times.
It was the least-busy Christmas week since 2020, which was slower for fairly obvious reasons. Even Christmas 2021, which saw a slowdown starting in late September due to a resurgence of COVID and reinstatement of mask rules, was busier than the week of Christmas 2025.
Christmas week was still the busiest since Easter and the 4th worst week of last year. It just wasn’t nearly as bad as last year or (especially) 2022-2023 or 2019. All of those were high 10/10 weeks; 7/10 is a big drop-off as contrasted with those.
Unsurprisingly, the week around New Year’s Eve was much, much busier. From December 27th through January 5th, Walt Disney World had heavy crowds. The peak day of the holiday season (December 29th) saw average wait times of 60 minutes, and only one week later (January 6th) that average was down to 32 minutes. That week ended up being the busiest of 2025 by a wide margin, but was still down year-over-year.
It wasn’t just Walt Disney World that was busy. As we’ve already covered, Epic Universe had its busiest day ever in early 2026. Not just the highest wait times ever for Epic Universe, but for any park at Universal Orlando or Walt Disney World since at least 2019–and by a very wide margin. The average wait on that date was 107 minutes, with peak waits of over 300 minutes and multiple headliners hitting 200+ minutes throughout the day. That whole week was likewise very busy at Universal Orlando.
One thing we did not previously cover, however, was New Year’s Eve at EPCOT. You should be able to easily spot December 31st on the below graph from thrill-data.com:
New Year’s Eve has long been the busiest day of the year at EPCOT, and I remember some truly crazy wait times on NYE back in 2019 and earlier. We were there to ring in several of those years, and they were wild.
Post-COVID, EPCOT had not reached those same heights…until this year. The average wait time on NYE at EPCOT was 83 minutes, far surpassing the second-busiest day of the year (December 30th), which hit “only” 61 minutes. For context, a normal day at EPCOT last year had an average wait time of 31 minutes.
We still love the atmosphere of EPCOT on New Year’s Eve and can’t wait to do it again, but it’s not for the faint of heart…or anyone wanting to actually ride rides. A good bucket list entry for WDW regulars, but definitely not first-timers.
For reference, the busiest stretches of the last few months were the two weeks of Fall Break around Columbus Day, two weeks around Veterans Day, Thanksgiving week, Christmas week, New Year’s week, and first week (or so) of 2026. None of this should come as a huge surprise.
The bigger surprise might be that the first week of Fall Break was busier than the November holiday weeks, and that there were two weeks of summer that were on par with the weeks around Veterans Day and Thanksgiving.
Even though we’ve identified those ‘twin peaks’ of summer as ones to avoid due to crowd spikes, we never would’ve expected the November holiday weeks to only be on par with those. Here’s a look at the daily wait time averages, courtesy of thrill-data.com:
Not to belabor the point, but these are crowd levels as measured by wait times. In our extensive experience, ‘feels like’ crowds are always worse during the holiday season. Always.
Even 2/10 and 3/10 days can have congestion, especially at EPCOT. And there’s also the fact that Magic Kingdom and Disney’s Hollywood Studios close early to hard ticket events multiple nights per week, so there’s more variance in day-to-day and park-to-park crowd levels.
The flip side to that, though, is that summer has worse ‘feels like’ weather. The reason congestion isn’t as bad is because people prioritize air-conditioning, so they move more quickly from line to line. Crowds are also worse in the (fewer) nighttime hours, especially Extended Evening Hours as a disproportionate number of guests seek out those as a reprieve from the weather.
To each their own, but I would happily take higher ‘feels like’ crowds/congestion over higher ‘feels like’ temperatures. That’s precisely why more weeks in November and December make our list of the best time to visit; recommendations that the above really underscore.
The lesson from the above, at least from my perspective, is that maybe the weeks of Thanksgiving and Christmas actually don’t belong on the worst list anymore. But before I go bucking conventional wisdom by changing those recommendations, I want to see another year of wait times data.
Since January 6th, wait times have mostly been as expected. The weekdays that followed dropped dramatically, and the last two weeks have had 29 minute averages before rebounding around MLK Day Weekend, which was about on par with the lead-up to Christmas.
The bigger surprise has been over the last few days, which is what we want to draw your attention to. We’ve talked to a couple of Florida friends at Walt Disney World this weekend, who described the parks as packed. EPCOT ran out of reservations on Saturday, and hit 9/10 crowd levels both days. From what we heard, the congestion was even worse, with it feeling like the 10/10 days between Christmas and New Year’s (but short of NYE itself).
The other parks were more in moderate territory, at least when it comes to wait times. However, we also received reader reports that everywhere was busy, even the hotels. That the wait times did not tell the full story. Frankly, this is often the case in the winter months, especially during EPCOT Festival of the Arts, so we initially weren’t too surprised or intending to cover it.
What piqued our curiosity, though, is the number of reports we heard or saw on social media of guests from other southern states “fleeing” to Florida to escape the winter weather. With the expectation that school would be cancelled due to snow and ice this week, and not wanting to be in their home states for the winter storms, a not-insignificant number of people took last-minute road trips to Walt Disney World, further exacerbating the crowds.
Another factor leading to higher attendance the last couple of weekends is the Discover Walt Disney World Ticket Deal for Florida Residents, which just launched on January 12th. This annual special offer is always hugely popular among locals, and leads to spikes in crowd levels towards the beginning and (especially) end of the discount.
With all of that said, the above is consistent with our experiences at Walt Disney World from November through February in each of the last few years. Assuming that the winter weather is creating a flee to Florida effect, it’s only exaggerating what we’ve already seen play out for a while.
This is especially true at EPCOT, and doubly so on weekends during both Festival of the Holidays and Festival of the Arts. Perhaps not coincidentally, these are the shortest festivals of the year, so locals have less time to experience them–thereby consolidating crowds into a shorter window. Anecdotally, we’ve found these to be the events that are more popular with locals. (Flower & Garden isn’t too far behind, particularly the first couple of weekends if the weather is nice.)
We’ve been discussing the ‘EPCOT Exception’ to crowds for a while now, due to it being the biggest locals’ park at Walt Disney World, but this is more pronounced than ever. It’s crazy to navigate walkways that are packed with people in World Showcase…but then have wait times more reflective of 3/10 to 6/10 crowds.
Ultimately, we felt it was worth covering this and once again pointing to the sometimes-significant gap between crowd levels and congestion. Wait times are used as a proxy for crowd levels because they are the only objective measure for that. There’s no alternative, and at the end of the day, wait times still are what’s most important to many people (who visit the parks to, you know, ride rides), even if congestion can leave an outsized impression.
It nevertheless bears underscoring that wait times are not the end-all, be-all when it comes to discussing crowds or choosing when to visit. Feels like crowds are typically worse from November through March. Conversely, feels like weather is typically worse from May through September.
There might be two days in mid-August and early December with identical numerical crowd levels, but the ‘feels like’ conditions in both would be radically different due to the temperature, walkway congestion, and more. That’s to say nothing of reduced capacity as a result of refurbishments, closures and construction, special events, holiday decorations, etc.. The bottom line is that there are a lot of variables that contribute to congestion or feels like crowds, and wait times are only one piece of the puzzle.
To that end, we will once again plug our more holistic list of the 10 Best & Worst Weeks to Visit Walt Disney World in 2026 & 2027. More than ever, we advise choosing when to visit on the basis of more than just numerical crowd levels. They don’t tell the full story, and in situations like right now–when winter weather could be causing an influx of visitors–there are some variables that are impossible to predict.
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
What do you think of wait time and crowd trends over the course of the last couple months? Have you been in the parks the last few days? Notice an uptick in congestion or wait times? Anyone ‘fleeing to Florida’ to escape winter weather? Expect ‘feels like’ crowds to be heavy over the next couple of months, even if the wait times suggest lower crowds? Do you agree or disagree with my assessment? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
